How Do I Know Which Market to Expand My App Into Next?

Most apps generate the majority of their revenue from just three to five countries, even when they're available in fifty or more markets. I've seen this pattern repeat itself across dozens of projects—a healthcare app pulling 80% of its revenue from the UK and US despite being translated into twelve languages, or an e-commerce platform with thousands of downloads in Southeast Asia but minimal actual purchases. It's a bit mad really, but geographic expansion is one of those things that sounds straightforward on paper and then gets incredibly complex the moment you start digging into the details.

When clients come to me asking which market they should expand into next, I can see they're often expecting a simple answer. They want me to say "go to Germany" or "focus on Brazil" and be done with it. But here's the thing—market expansion isn't about picking countries off a map; its about understanding where your specific app will actually thrive based on real data, not gut feeling or wishful thinking.

The apps that succeed in new markets are the ones that treated expansion as a completely separate launch, not just flipping a switch to make the app available in more countries.

Over the years I've watched companies burn through significant budgets localising their apps for markets that looked promising but turned out to be completely wrong fits. I've also seen smaller startups nail their second market because they did the groundwork properly—they validated demand before committing resources, they understood the technical requirements, and they knew exactly what success would look like before launching. That's what this guide is about... giving you a framework for making smart expansion decisions based on what actually works, not what sounds good in a boardroom.

Understanding Your Current Market Position

Before you even think about expanding into new markets, you need to honestly assess where you stand right now. I mean really assess it, not just glance at your download numbers and call it a day. This is something I see companies get wrong all the time—they rush into expansion without properly understanding their current position, and it costs them. Badly.

Start by looking at your app's performance metrics in your existing market. What's your monthly active user rate? Are people actually using your app or just downloading it and forgetting about it? I worked with an e-commerce app that had 500,000 downloads but only 12,000 monthly active users; that's a massive red flag that told us we had retention issues to fix before considering expansion. Your retention rate needs to be solid—ideally above 40% for day 7 retention—before you expand elsewhere. Why? Because if you cant keep users engaged in a market you understand well, you'll struggle even more in unfamiliar territory.

Look at your revenue per user too. If you're monetising through subscriptions or in-app purchases, what's your average revenue per user (ARPU) and customer lifetime value? A fintech app I worked on had an ARPU of £8 per month in the UK, which gave us a baseline to compare against potential new markets. You need these numbers locked down because they'll determine whether expansion makes financial sense at all, particularly when you consider ongoing app expenses in each market.

Also—and this is important—check your app store ratings and reviews. Not just the star rating, but actually read what people are saying. If your current users are complaining about bugs, confusing navigation, or missing features, those problems will follow you into new markets. Sort them out first.

Research Methods That Actually Work

I've watched too many apps expand into new markets based on gut feeling rather than proper research, and its always painful to see the money wasted. The best research method I've used? Start with your existing user data—look at where your current downloads are coming from outside your primary market. If you're seeing organic growth in specific countries without any marketing effort, that's a strong signal worth investigating. We built a fintech app that kept getting downloads from Malaysia despite zero presence there; turned out there was a genuine need we could fill.

App store intelligence tools are worth their weight in gold for this kind of work. Tools like App Annie or Sensor Tower let you see exactly how apps in your category are performing across different markets, what keywords are driving downloads, and how much competition you'll actually face. But here's the thing—don't just look at the top apps. I always check the apps ranked 20-50 in a category because they give you a more realistic view of what a new entrant might achieve. The other method that's proved valuable? Running small paid advertising tests on Facebook or Google in potential markets. Spend £500-1000 to see what your cost per install looks like and how engaged those users are compared to your home market. Its a cheap way to validate demand before committing serious resources.

Set up Google Analytics with geographic segmentation from day one—even if you're only serving one market initially. The data you collect over time becomes incredibly valuable when planning expansion, showing you where natural demand exists.

User interviews matter more than most founders think. I always recommend getting on calls with 5-10 potential users in a target market before making big decisions. Yes, it takes time and yes, there might be language barriers to work around... but the insights you get about local preferences, payment habits, and how people actually use their phones are impossible to get from data alone. Understanding what user data reveals about behaviour patterns becomes even more critical when you're operating across different cultural contexts. One healthcare app we worked on discovered through interviews that their proposed market had terrible internet connectivity, which completely changed our technical approach and saved us from building something that wouldn't have worked properly.

Evaluating Market Size and Opportunity

Look, you can't just pick a market because it feels right or because someone told you "everyone's expanding into Southeast Asia." I've watched too many companies burn through their budget chasing markets that looked huge on paper but turned out to be completely wrong for their app. The truth is, market size means nothing if those users dont actually want what you're selling or cant pay for it.

Here's what I actually do when evaluating a new market—I start with the TAM/SAM/SOM framework but I use real numbers, not wishful thinking. Total Addressable Market tells you how many people exist in that space; Serviceable Available Market shows who you could realistically reach; Serviceable Obtainable Market is what you'll actually capture in the first 12-18 months. For a healthcare app we expanded into Germany, the TAM was 83 million people but our SAM dropped to about 12 million (smartphone users with the specific health condition) and our SOM? We targeted 50,000 users in year one. That's the kind of honest assessment you need.

Key Metrics That Actually Matter

You need to dig into the data that impacts your bottom line, not vanity metrics. I always look at smartphone penetration rates first because if you're building a mobile-first app and only 40% of your target market has smartphones, you've got a problem. Then its payment infrastructure—can people actually pay you? In some markets, credit card penetration is under 10% which means you'll need local payment methods or mobile money integration. Average revenue per user varies wildly by region too; what works in the UK at £4.99/month might need to be £0.99 in other markets to see any adoption at all.

Questions to Answer Before You Commit

I run through this checklist for every expansion project because missing even one of these can sink your launch:

• What's the current app store ranking for your category in that market? If its saturated with local competitors, you'll need a bigger marketing budget
• How do users in that region discover apps—is it through app store search, social media, word of mouth? This changes everything about your go-to-market strategy
• What's the customer acquisition cost in that market? I've seen it range from £2 in some emerging markets to £45+ in competitive sectors like fintech
• Can you legally operate there without a local entity? Some countries require local registration or partnerships which adds complexity and cost
• What's the typical user lifetime value and how does it compare to your acquisition costs? If you're spending £10 to acquire users who'll pay you £8 total, the maths dont work

One fintech client wanted to expand into Brazil because they'd heard it was a massive market. It is—but when we dug into the data, we found their ideal customer segment (high-income professionals doing international transfers) was actually quite small and already well-served by local competitors. We ended up recommending Mexico instead where the opportunity was smaller on paper but way more accessible for their specific product. They hit profitability there in 8 months instead of burning cash trying to crack a market that wasnt right for them.

Technical Requirements and Regional Differences

Right, so you've picked your target market and done the research—but here's where things get properly complicated. The technical side of expanding into new regions will catch you out if you're not prepared for it. I mean, its one thing to say "lets launch in Southeast Asia" and quite another to actually make your app work there.

Payment integration is always the first shock. What works in the UK means nothing in other markets; I've built e-commerce apps where we had to integrate seven different payment methods just for Indonesia alone because credit card penetration is so low. You've got e-wallets like GoPay and OVO, bank transfers, even convenience store payments. And here's the thing—these aren't nice-to-haves, they're absolutely necessary if you want anyone to actually complete a purchase. Understanding why payment apps require bigger budgets helps explain the complexity involved. The same goes for India with UPI, or China where you basically need WeChat Pay and Alipay or you might as well not bother.

Infrastructure Challenges Nobody Talks About

Network conditions are bloody different everywhere too. An app that loads beautifully on 5G in London will feel broken on 3G in rural Brazil or Vietnam. I've had to completely rethink image compression strategies and implement aggressive caching for apps expanding into markets with unreliable connectivity... it adds weeks to development but its the difference between an app people can actually use and one they delete immediately.

The technical requirements for a new market often cost more than the localisation itself, and most companies dont budget for this reality until its too late.

Then there's the regulatory stuff. Data residency laws mean your entire backend architecture might need changing—China requires data to be stored locally, same with Russia. GDPR compliance is just the start really; every region has its own privacy requirements and you need legal review before launch. Making sure you've got proper privacy documentation for each market is essential, and certain app features will trigger additional compliance requirements. App store requirements vary too; some countries have additional documentation or certification needs that can delay your launch by months if you're not prepared.

Competition Analysis in New Markets

When we built a fitness tracking app that wanted to expand from the UK into Southeast Asia, the first thing we did was download every single competitor app in those target markets. And I mean every one. It sounds simple, but you'd be surprised how many companies skip this step and just assume their current competitors are the same everywhere. They aren't. In Thailand, we found three local fitness apps that absolutely dominated the market—none of which had any presence in Europe. These apps understood local workout preferences (Muay Thai training, for instance), integrated with payment methods we'd never heard of, and had social features built around group exercise culture that was totally different from the UK market.

I always create what I call a competition matrix when analysing new markets. Its basically a spreadsheet where I track key features, pricing models, user reviews (especially the negative ones), app store rankings, and update frequency for each competitor. The negative reviews are gold, honestly—they tell you exactly what users want but aren't getting. Understanding what competitor strategies reveal through their social media presence is equally valuable. When we analysed competitors for a fintech app expanding into Germany, we noticed users constantly complained about complicated verification processes. That became our opportunity; we simplified our KYC flow and made it a key selling point in that market.

What to Look For

Here's what I track for every competitor app in a new market:

• Their monetisation strategy and whether its working (check if they're still updating the app regularly)
• Feature gaps that users mention in reviews but competitors haven't addressed
• Local partnerships they've established with regional brands or services
• Their customer support approach and response times in local languages
• App store optimization tactics—what keywords are they targeting, what screenshots resonate
• How they handle regional payment preferences and local regulations

Finding Your Competitive Advantage

Competition analysis isn't about copying what others do—its about finding white space. When we looked at the German fintech market, we found that most local apps had great functionality but terrible onboarding experiences. Their apps assumed users already understood complex financial products. We spent extra development time creating educational tooltips and simplified explanations, which became our main differentiator. Sometimes your competitive advantage isn't a fancy feature; its just doing the basics better than everyone else in that specific market. Look at app store ratings too. If the market leader only has a 3.5-star rating, theres clearly room for improvement and users are actively looking for alternatives. For startups entering established markets, understanding how to position against established brands becomes crucial for gaining market share.

Cost Considerations for Geographic Expansion

Here's something nobody tells you about geographic expansion—it's almost always more expensive than you think it will be. I've watched clients budget £50,000 for an international launch only to spend twice that because they didn't account for all the hidden costs. And I'm talking about smart people too, people who'd done their homework. But the thing is, expanding into new markets isn't just about translating your app and flipping a switch; there are costs lurking everywhere if you know where to look.

Localisation is the obvious one. You're looking at roughly £0.08-0.15 per word for professional translation, which means a typical app with 5,000 words of content costs £400-750 per language. But translation is just the start—you need native speakers to review the context because direct translations often miss cultural nuances. I worked on a fitness app where we translated "burn calories" literally into Japanese and it came across as quite aggressive, almost violent. We had to rework the entire motivational messaging system. That cost an extra £2,500 we hadn't budgeted for.

Technical Infrastructure Costs

Server costs can jump significantly when you expand geographically. If you're launching in Asia and your servers are all in Europe, you need local server infrastructure or a CDN to maintain decent performance. We moved a fintech app into Singapore and had to set up AWS instances in the Asia-Pacific region; that added £800 monthly to their hosting bill. Payment gateway integration is another cost people forget—each region has its preferred payment methods and they all charge setup fees. Stripe might work in the UK but in Germany you need SEPA direct debit, in China you need Alipay or WeChat Pay. Each integration costs £3,000-8,000 depending on complexity.

Ongoing Compliance and Support

Legal compliance is where costs really spiral. GDPR compliance for European markets, CCPA for California, LGPD for Brazil—each region has its own data protection requirements and you'll need legal review for each one. Budget at least £5,000-15,000 per major market for proper legal compliance work. It's also worth understanding what happens when data security incidents occur in different jurisdictions, as breach notification requirements vary significantly. Then there's customer support; if you're serious about a market you need support in local languages during local business hours. Even outsourcing this costs £2,000-4,000 monthly per language depending on expected volume. App store optimisation in new markets needs local expertise too—what works for keywords in English doesn't translate directly. A good ASO specialist familiar with the local market costs £1,500-3,000 monthly, and you need them for at least 3-6 months to see real results.

Don't forget marketing costs scale with each new market. User acquisition costs vary wildly by region—acquiring a user in India might cost £0.50 while the same user in Switzerland costs £8. Your £10,000 marketing budget could get you 20,000 users in one market or 1,250 in another. Always research local CAC rates before committing to expansion budgets.

The mistake I see most often? Companies budget for the launch but not for the ongoing costs. You've paid for translation, set up local servers, sorted compliance... then three months later you realise you need continuous localisation for app updates, ongoing legal monitoring for regulation changes, and sustained marketing spend to stay competitive. A healthcare app we built launched in Germany beautifully but they'd only budgeted for year one; when medical device regulations changed six months later they nearly had to pull out because they couldn't afford the compliance updates. Budget at least 30-40% of your initial expansion costs annually for ongoing maintenance and adaptation—its not glamorous but it keeps you in the market.

Testing Before Full Launch

Before you commit your entire budget to a new market, you need to test the waters properly—and I mean properly, not just changing the App Store description to French and hoping for the best. I've seen companies burn through six-figure budgets by skipping this step, and its honestly painful to watch.

The most effective approach I've used is what I call a soft launch in tier-two cities within your target market. For example, when expanding into Germany, we launched a fintech app in cities like Cologne and Dresden rather than Berlin or Munich. This gave us real user data without the massive advertising costs of major metropolitan areas. We could test our German localisation, see if our payment integrations worked smoothly, and identify any cultural assumptions we'd made that didn't quite land. And guess what? We found three major issues in the first week that would have been embarrassing (and expensive) if we'd gone nationwide.

What You Should Test

Your testing phase needs to cover more than just translation quality. I always run tests on payment processing speeds because different countries have different expectations—users in the Netherlands expect instant bank transfers whilst others are comfortable waiting 2-3 days. Test your customer support channels too; we once launched an app assuming email support would be fine, only to discover our target market in Brazil expected WhatsApp integration as standard. Building an email list for user engagement also works differently across markets—what resonates in one region might completely miss the mark in another.

Setting Your Success Metrics

Define what success looks like before you start testing. Here's what I track during soft launches:

• Day 1, Day 7, and Day 30 retention rates compared to your home market
• Cost per acquisition in the test market versus projections
• Customer support ticket volume and types of issues raised
• Conversion rates through your core user journey
• App Store ratings and review sentiment in local language
• Technical performance metrics like crash rates and loading times on local network infrastructure

Run your test for at least 4-6 weeks. I know thats longer than most people want to wait, but you need enough time to see user behaviour patterns emerge. If your app has poor reviews from the testing phase, understanding how to position when reviews are your weakness becomes critical before the full launch. One healthcare app we worked on showed brilliant first-week numbers in Spain, but retention dropped off a cliff after two weeks because we'd missed a regulatory requirement that made the sign-up process too complex. Better to find that out in a controlled test than after you've spent your entire marketing budget.

Conclusion

After nearly a decade of helping apps expand into new markets—from a healthcare app going from the UK into Germany to an e-commerce platform testing the waters in Southeast Asia—the one thing I've learned is this: theres no perfect formula. I've seen apps succeed in markets where all the data said they'd fail, and I've watched seemingly guaranteed wins fall flat within weeks of launch.

Market expansion isn't about finding the "right" market; its about finding the right market for your specific app, your team's capabilities, and your available resources. That fintech app I mentioned earlier? They had three markets that looked equally promising on paper, but only one had the regulatory environment where they could actually operate without spending two years and half a million pounds on compliance. The data didn't show that—only deep research revealed it.

Start small. Test your assumptions. Be prepared to be wrong about what you think will work because users in different markets behave in ways that surprise even the most experienced teams. I've had apps that performed brilliantly in soft launches completely change their feature priorities based on what new users actually cared about—and that flexibility made all the difference between moderate success and genuine market fit.

The apps that succeed in new markets are the ones that treat expansion as a learning process, not a land grab. They validate their assumptions with real users, they adapt their product to local needs, and they're honest about whether a market is truly worth the investment. Sometimes the best decision is to stay focused on your current market and grow deeper rather than wider. That takes discipline, but it can save you from expensive mistakes that derail your entire business.